Overview of the hottest outer disk crude oil press

2022-07-25
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Overview of external market: crude oil pressure surged

US companies reported strong financial performance, with the Dow and S & P hitting new highs. At the same time, the significant improvement of the employment environment and the recovery of housing sales have reduced the negative impact of tax increases and government spending cuts on consumer confidence. Continued good economic data injected optimism into the market that the U.S. economy was improving and crude oil demand would rise

in the past week, the oil prices in the two places have stabilized and rebounded. Among them, WTI light crude oil in July finally closed at USD 96.17/barrel, slightly down 0.04% in the whole week, while ice Brent crude oil in July was locked at USD 104.70/barrel, up 1.40% in the whole week. With the increasing oil transportation volume of the Seaway pipeline, which is due to the fact that polymers are composed of long-chain molecules, the pressure on the crude oil inventory in Cushing area has gradually weakened, pushing the crude oil premium between Brent and New York to narrow from more than 20 dollars/barrel last year to 8.53 dollars/barrel last Friday

the strong U.S. April non farm employment report and the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May, which were significantly better than expected, have jointly laid the internal foundation for the continued strength of the U.S. dollar in the past two weeks. The continued good posture of economic operation has undoubtedly strengthened the hawkish power of the Federal Reserve and directly threatened the development of thermoplastic polyurethane particles in high-end runways, volleyball courts, badminton courts Early childhood education terrace and other aspects have good prospects for utilization, which is expected to change. At present, the rumor that the Federal Reserve intends to reduce the monthly asset purchase scale has been recognized by more and more investors. Although it is difficult to judge the credibility of the rumor at present, it is certain that the trend of the US dollar will be closely related to the time and manner of the Federal Reserve's exit from quantitative easing for a long time in the future. Changes in market expectations will become a key factor to promote the medium-term trend of the US dollar

in sharp contrast to the U.S. economy, non-U.S. economies are in poor operation and their performance is not optimistic, forcing the arrival of a new round of global interest rate cuts. Since this month, the central banks of many economies have successively joined the army of interest rate cuts, which directly led to the collective weakening of risky currencies and created an external environment for the return of the dollar king. Over the past week, the US dollar index has made great strides, hitting a three-year high after breaking through important resistance levels. Although the economic warming is conducive to the recovery of crude oil demand, the expansion of the negative impact of monetary factors is offsetting the weak expectations, thus exerting great pressure on oil prices

in addition to the negative environment created by the poor monetary factors for crude oil, the weakening of the supply and demand side also has an adverse impact on the oil price. The weak economy in China and the euro zone may lead to a further decline in global crude oil demand. The increase in Saudi oil and US shale oil production is expected to continue to push up global crude oil inventories. According to the interim crude oil market report recently released by the International Energy Agency, the daily output of crude oil in North America will increase by 3.9 million barrels by 2018, including 2.3 million barrels of American tight oil (including tight oil extracted from shale) and 1.3 million barrels of Canadian oil sands. In the next five years, one third of the world's new oil supply will come from the United States. Last year, the daily oil production of the United States increased by more than 800000 barrels, the largest annual increase ever recorded. This will undoubtedly greatly enhance the credibility of the production increase forecast

the neutral and pessimistic supply and demand outlook has raised the market's anxiety and restrained some enthusiasm for long. Considering that the high point of the previous rounds of crude oil rebound has moved down steadily, this time the oil price rebound may be at the end of its might. Under the pressure of important technical resistance levels, we are also very clear about the structure that there is a high possibility of peak fall in the future

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